Frequently Asked Questions

TiltFolio offers two complementary systems: TiltFolio Balanced, which uses a strategic mix of assets to remain above long-term trends, and TiltFolio Adaptive, which uses a unique approach that listens to the "inside of the market" — analyzing how groups of stocks move relative to each other — to forecast future market volatility before it happens. This early insight helps TiltFolio Adaptive position the portfolio proactively in either "risk-on" or "risk-off" environments, selecting asset classes that are likely to perform best under those conditions.

Unlike many investment strategies that react to price trends or volatility after they occur, TiltFolio Adaptive anticipates regime shifts by relying on market internals as a forward-looking signal. It also applies strict trend-following discipline, only investing in assets with confirmed positive momentum. TiltFolio Balanced, meanwhile, provides a diversified approach designed to outperform traditional 60/40 portfolios. This combination of strategic allocation and dynamic trend-following across multiple asset classes sets TiltFolio apart by aiming to provide superior risk-adjusted returns.

TiltFolio Balanced is a strategic, diversified allocation designed to outperform traditional 60/40 portfolios with better risk-adjusted returns. It uses a carefully selected mix of asset classes that have historically proven to trend higher over time, providing steady growth with reduced volatility compared to traditional portfolios.

TiltFolio Adaptive is a dynamic system that rotates between asset classes based on market internals and volatility forecasting. It actively adjusts exposure based on market conditions, moving to defensive positions during high volatility and growth assets during stable periods. Both systems can be used together for enhanced diversification and risk management.

Both TiltFolio Balanced and TiltFolio Adaptive are fully rules-based and systematic. TiltFolio Adaptive follows a disciplined, pre-defined set of rules for analyzing market conditions, forecasting volatility, and selecting assets. TiltFolio Balanced uses a strategic allocation framework with rules for rebalancing and asset selection. This approach removes emotional decision-making and human biases such as overconfidence or loss aversion, which can negatively impact discretionary investing. The rules for both systems are backtested over multiple decades, providing transparency and consistency in how investment decisions are made.

By strictly following predefined, data-driven rules, TiltFolio removes guesswork and emotional impulses from investment decisions. This helps investors avoid biases like overconfidence, loss aversion, and panic selling. These behaviors often lead investors to chase performance, sell at lows, or hold losers too long — mistakes TiltFolio is designed to prevent.

TiltFolio is ideal for investors seeking a disciplined, rules-based system that blends trend-following with volatility forecasting. It suits those who want to avoid emotional decision-making, appreciate systematic investing, and seek diversified exposure beyond traditional buy-and-hold portfolios.

TiltFolio is currently free, including access to the core, unlevered model portfolio. We believe in earning trust by delivering real value upfront.

In the future, we plan to introduce a premium version of the model portfolio that uses selective leverage to enhance returns. This advanced version will be available to paying subscribers and is designed for investors seeking higher performance while still following our rules-based, risk-aware approach.

TiltFolio Adaptive analyzes the relative performance and strength of different groups of stocks within the market, known as market internals, to detect early shifts in volatility. By studying decades of historical data, it has been shown that these internal market movements reliably predict whether volatility will rise or fall in the near future. This forward-looking signal gives TiltFolio Adaptive a unique edge to position the portfolio ahead of market regime changes, rather than reacting after volatility has already shifted.

"Risk-on" refers to market environments where investors are confident and willing to take on more risk, typically favoring stocks and growth-oriented assets. "Risk-off" describes periods when investors seek safety and reduce risk exposure, favoring bonds and defensive assets. TiltFolio Adaptive uses its volatility forecast from market internals to anticipate these regimes early. When volatility is expected to fall ("risk-on"), it allocates more to stocks and similar assets. When volatility is expected to rise ("risk-off"), it shifts to bonds or defensive positions to protect capital. TiltFolio Balanced, meanwhile, maintains a diversified allocation designed to perform well across different market conditions.

Unlike traditional buy-and-hold strategies that endure every downturn, TiltFolio Adaptive adjusts based on observable market trends and volatility conditions.

During crises like COVID in 2020 or the 2008 financial crash, TiltFolio Adaptive moved to defensive assets quickly, helping reduce drawdowns and preserve capital. TiltFolio Balanced, being a diversified buy-and-hold approach, experienced the full market impact but was designed to recover over time. It's not about predicting the future, it's about responding to what markets are actually doing.

During market downturns or rising volatility, TiltFolio Adaptive's volatility forecasting model signals a "risk-off" environment. In response, the system reduces exposure to riskier assets like stocks and increases allocations to more defensive asset classes such as bonds or specially designed volatility-protection holdings. In rare cases when no major asset class shows a positive trend, TiltFolio Adaptive holds cash to preserve capital. TiltFolio Balanced, meanwhile, maintains its strategic allocation through market cycles, designed to recover over time. This disciplined, rules-based approach aims to limit losses and manage risk through turbulent periods.

Yes. When no major asset class is trending higher, a rare but important signal, TiltFolio Adaptive temporarily holds cash to preserve capital and avoid unnecessary risk until conditions improve.

No, TiltFolio Adaptive does not use leverage. TiltFolio Adaptive's core allocations to long positions in stocks, bonds, gold, and commodity equities do not use leverage, they represent straightforward long exposures to those asset classes. However, the system includes a "long-volatility proxy" designed as a market-neutral strategy: it holds a basket of safer stocks long and a basket of riskier stocks short, sized equally in dollar terms.

Because the long and short positions offset each other, this approach is generally considered market-neutral rather than leveraged. While it involves short selling, the net exposure to the market is close to zero, so it's not traditional leverage where you borrow additional capital to amplify exposure. Instead, it's a tactical hedge designed to perform well during volatility spikes without increasing overall portfolio risk.

TiltFolio Adaptive actively adjusts exposure based on forecasts of volatility and asset trends, while TiltFolio Balanced uses a strategic, diversified allocation that's designed to outperform traditional 60/40 portfolios over time. This combination of dynamic and strategic approaches aims to improve risk management and generate better risk-adjusted returns over time.

TiltFolio Adaptive may be allocated to growth stocks, value stocks, bonds, gold, commodity equities (as a proxy for commodities), a long-volatility proxy, and cash. Being able to rotate between asset classes allows TiltFolio Adaptive to adapt dynamically to changing market conditions and reduce dependence on any single asset class. TiltFolio Balanced maintains a strategic allocation across stocks, gold, and US Treasury bonds, designed to provide steady growth with reduced volatility compared to traditional portfolios.

TiltFolio Adaptive updates once a month, and on the first trading day of the month. This cadence balances the need to respond to changing market trends while avoiding excessive trading and costs. In rare cases when volatility rises significantly, TiltFolio Adaptive may issue additional trading signals to allocate to cash during the month. TiltFolio Balanced is a buy-and-hold system that needs to be rebalanced annually to maintain its strategic allocation.

TiltFolio relies on end-of-day data to generate its signals and update portfolio allocations. This approach balances timely responsiveness with data reliability and reduces noise from intraday price fluctuations, providing a robust, rules-based framework.

While TiltFolio is designed as a complete, ready-to-follow system, investors can use its allocations as a baseline and customize them to suit individual risk tolerance, investment goals, or preferences. Many users integrate TiltFolio allocations with other holdings or adjust exposure levels, but it's important to understand that such modifications may alter the risk-return profile that the system aims to deliver.

Absolutely. Many investors use TiltFolio as a complementary system to diversify their holdings, gain exposure to alternative asset classes, or as a benchmark to challenge their own investment decisions.

TiltFolio's rules-based approach has been backtested over multiple decades, showing consistent performance through various market cycles—including bull markets, bear markets, and periods of heightened volatility. By anticipating regime changes and combining volatility forecasting with trend-following discipline, the system aims to capture upside during favorable conditions while reducing drawdowns during downturns. Historical performance is not a guarantee of future results but provides a strong foundation for confidence in the strategy.

All investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. While TiltFolio aims to manage risk through volatility forecasting and trend-following, no system can guarantee profits or avoid losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TiltFolio is designed to be accessible to a wide range of investors—from those new to systematic investing to experienced professionals. Because the system is rules-based and clearly explained, it serves as a straightforward framework that anyone can follow without requiring complex judgment calls. At the same time, experienced investors can use TiltFolio as a reliable benchmark or incorporate its allocations into their own strategies for added insight and diversification.

Getting started is simple: sign up on the TiltFolio website, review the model portfolio allocations, and implement them through your preferred brokerage. Regular updates and insights help you stay informed and aligned with the system.

Yes. TiltFolio's rules-based, diversified approach is well-suited for tax-advantaged accounts and retirement portfolios, where long-term risk management and steady growth are priorities.

Yes. TiltFolio provides educational content that explains its methodology, market concepts, and investing principles. Support is also available directly from TiltFolio's founder to help users understand the system and its signals.